The high risk category is reserved for a setup where meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center are confident that there will be an outbreak of long-lived, widespread, dangerous weather. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 48), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Day 1. At this level, several areas of widespread and intense storms are likely, and numerous long-track tornadoes are a possible threat. SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021. A front lies over central New Zealand today bringing showers to the upper South Island and rain. Storms are expected to be more widespread and more intense.Ī moderate risk signals that widespread severe storms are likely and that some of those will be quite intense. Tuesdays national forecast Front over central NZ (+10 maps). It indicates a somewhat higher threat for severe storms.
The enhanced risk category was added in 2014. The Lifted Index is used to assess a low-level parcel of air with regard to its stability and is a simple index to derive. An isolated intense storm could be possible. The Convective Outlook may have an overlaid black hatched area to indicate severe probabilities within 25 miles of any point. Short-lived severe storms are likely, but not widespread. Maybe a couple of storms will hit severe criteria, perhaps an isolated tornado will be produced, but the threat is limited.Ī slight risk is issued when scattered severe storms are possible. A marginal risk is issued if only isolated severe weather is expected.